Blog >> Credit Card Transfer Bonus Predictions
By Hunter Threadgill / May 23, 2025
For points and miles enthusiasts, credit card transfer bonuses are one of the best ways to stretch the value of rewards.
While many credit card points transfer to airline and hotel partners at a standard 1:1 ratio, temporary bonuses can boost that rate – sometimes by 20, 30, 40 percent, or more.
These promotions create opportunities to book premium flights and luxury hotels for fewer points, but timing them can be tricky.
The good news is that transfer bonuses tend to follow patterns.
By analyzing past promotions from programs like Chase Ultimate Rewards, American Express Membership Rewards, Capital One Miles, and Citi ThankYou Points, we can make educated guesses about when and where the next bonuses might appear.
In this guide, we will dive into historical data to predict which airlines and hotels could be next in line for transfer bonuses.
We will also break down how to plan your redemptions around these promotions, ensuring you get the best value for your points. Whether you are eyeing a Business Class seat to Europe or a five-star hotel stay, understanding these trends can help you maximize every transfer.
Let’s take a closer look at what history tells us about the future of credit card transfer bonuses!
A Brief Review Of Historical Credit Card Transfer Bonuses
Before predicting future credit card transfer bonuses, it helps to look at past trends.
Credit card issuers like American Express, Chase, Capital One, and Citi have all offered transfer bonuses to select airline and hotel partners, often following recognizable patterns.
Some programs provide bonuses regularly, while others are more unpredictable.
By reviewing historical data, we can identify which partners have received the most frequent bonuses, the typical increase in transfer rates, and how long these promotions tend to last.
Note: The data in this analysis is based on transfer bonuses offered between 2022 and 2025 and excludes Bilt Rewards due to the nature of their transfer bonuses occurring on Rent Day.
Historical Credit Card Transfer Bonuses By Bank
Not all credit card issuers offer transfer bonuses at the same frequency.
Some, like American Express, are known for running these promotions consistently, while others, like Capital One, offer them less often.
On average, 3.0 banks per month offer at least one transfer bonus.
However, the likelihood of any particular bank running a bonus varies:
- American Express leads the pack, offering a transfer bonus 73% of the time in any given month.
- Citi follows with a 63% probability, meaning it provides bonuses fairly often but not as consistently as American Express.
- Chase is close behind at 61%, making it another strong contender for those who prefer its transfer partners.
- Capital One has the lowest frequency, with a 44% probability of offering a bonus in any given month.
These trends suggest that if you are waiting for a transfer bonus, American Express is the most dependable option, while Capital One requires more patience.
Historical Credit Card Transfer Bonuses By Transfer Partner
While banks set the transfer bonus promotions, the frequency and size of these bonuses vary depending on the airline or hotel partner.
Some loyalty programs, like Avianca LifeMiles, Air France-KLM Flying Blue, or Virgin Atlantic Flying Club, receive transfer bonuses frequently, while others, like United MileagePlus or World of Hyatt, never see promotions.
By analyzing past trends, we can identify which transfer partners are most likely to offer bonuses and how generous those bonuses tend to be.
Airline Transfer Partners
When it comes to credit card transfer bonuses, some airline loyalty programs receive promotions far more often than others.
Over the past few years, an average of 2.5 airline transfer bonuses have been available each month across major banks.
However, the likelihood of any specific airline offering a bonus varies widely, from as high as 41% to as low as 2% in a given month.
Here is a breakdown of the most frequent airline transfer bonuses:
- Avianca LifeMiles (41%): The most consistent airline for transfer bonuses, making it a top choice for those looking to book Star Alliance awards at a discount.
- Virgin Atlantic Flying Club (37%): Regular bonuses make Virgin Points a great option for booking Delta flights or ANA First Class at excellent rates.
- Air France-KLM Flying Blue (34%): A frequent transfer bonus recipient, which pairs well with its monthly Promo Rewards for discounted flights.
- Avios Family of Airlines (29%): Includes British Airways, Finnair, Iberia, Qatar Airways, and Aer Lingus, all of which occasionally receive bonuses.
- Air Canada Aeroplan (15%): While not as frequent, bonuses on Aeroplan can be valuable for Star Alliance award bookings.
- Cathay Pacific Asia Miles (12%): Less common but can be useful for Oneworld redemptions.
- Etihad Guest (10%): Infrequent bonuses, but can be valuable for booking American Airlines and other partner flights.
- JetBlue TrueBlue (7%): Bonuses are rare, but they can provide extra value for domestic redemptions.
- Qantas Frequent Flyer (7%): Occasionally receives bonuses, though not a frequent trend.
- TAP Air Portugal Miles&Go (5%): Rare, but sometimes available.
- Aeromexico Club Premier (5%): One of the least frequent bonus recipients.
- Singapore KrisFlyer (2%): Transfers can be useful for premium Singapore Airlines redemptions, but bonuses are extremely rare.
- Turkish Airlines Miles&Smiles (2%): One of the least likely to receive a transfer bonus, making speculative transfers risky.
For those looking to maximize their points, focusing on airline programs like Avianca lifemiles, Air France-KLM Flying Blue, and Virgin Atlantic Flying Club offers the best chances of securing a transfer bonus.
Meanwhile, programs with low probabilities, like Singapore Airlines and Turkish Airlines, are less likely to offer a promotion, making speculative transfers riskier.
Hotel Transfer Partners
Compared to airlines, hotel loyalty programs receive transfer bonuses far less frequently.
On average, there are only 0.8 hotel transfer bonuses per month across major banks, making them a less common opportunity for points maximization.
However, some hotel programs see bonuses more often than others.
Here is a breakdown of the most frequent hotel transfer bonuses:
- Marriott Bonvoy (29%): The most likely hotel program to receive a transfer bonus, making it the best option for those looking to maximize hotel redemptions.
- Hilton Honors (17%): Occasionally sees transfer bonuses, though its regular point transfer ratios are not as favorable.
- IHG One Rewards (12%): Less frequent than Hilton or Marriott, but still sees periodic promotions.
- Accor Live Limitless (7%): A relatively rare transfer bonus recipient, though valuable for travelers in Europe where Accor has a strong presence.
- Wyndham Rewards (7%): Bonuses are uncommon, but can be useful for niche redemptions like Vacasa vacation rentals.
- Choice Privileges (2%): Rarely receives transfer bonuses, making it a less attractive option for speculative transfers.
- Leading Hotels of the World (2%): One of the least likely hotel programs to see a transfer bonus, making transfers without a promotion a riskier move.
With hotel transfer bonuses being less frequent than airline promotions, travelers should be cautious when transferring points to hotel programs.
Marriott Bonvoy offers the most reliable bonus opportunities, while other hotel programs, such as Choice Privileges and Leading Hotels of the World, rarely receive promotions.
If you are considering transferring points for a hotel stay, waiting for a Marriott or Hilton bonus may provide the best value.
However, for most travelers, earning hotel points directly through stays or co-branded credit cards is often a more efficient strategy than relying on transferable points.
Credit Card Transfer Bonus Predictions
By analyzing historical credit card transfer bonus trends, we can make informed predictions about which banks and loyalty programs are most likely to offer bonuses in the future.
While no forecast is guaranteed, past data gives us a strong indication of when and where transfer bonuses may appear.
Our goal is to provide transfer bonus predictions for the next four quarters on a rolling basis, helping travelers plan their redemptions strategically.
Airline Transfer Bonus Predictions
Based on historical trends, we predict that the following airlines are the most likely to receive transfer bonuses in the next four quarters: Avianca lifemiles, Air France-KLM Flying Blue, Virgin Atlantic Flying Club, the Avios family of airlines (British Airways, Finnair, Iberia, Qatar Airways, and Aer Lingus), Cathay Pacific Asia Miles, and Air Canada Aeroplan.
These programs have consistently been among the top recipients of transfer bonuses, making them strong candidates for future promotions.
Here is our probability forecast – Low (<25%), Medium (+/- 50%), High (>75%) – of a transfer bonus for each airline by flexible point currency:
Avianca lifemiles
- American Express Membership Rewards
- 2025 – Q3: Medium
- 2025 – Q4: High
- 2026 – Q1: Medium
- 2026 – Q2: High
- Capital One Miles
- Capital One has an overall “Low” probability
- Citi ThankYou Rewards
- 2025 – Q3: Medium
- 2025 – Q4: Low
- 2026 – Q1: Medium
- 2026 – Q2: Medium
Air France-KLM Flying Blue
- American Express Membership Rewards
- 2025 – Q3: Medium
- 2025 – Q4: Medium
- 2026 – Q1: Medium
- 2026 – Q2: Low
- Capital One Miles
- 2025 – Q3: High
- 2025 – Q4: Low
- 2026 – Q1: Low
- 2026 – Q2: Low
- Chase Ultimate Rewards
- 2025 – Q3: Low
- 2025 – Q4: Medium
- 2026 – Q1: Low
- 2026 – Q2: Medium
- Citi ThankYou Rewards
- Citi has an overall “Low” probability
Virgin Atlantic Flying Club
- American Express Membership Rewards
- 2025 – Q3: Low
- 2025 – Q4: High
- 2026 – Q1: Low
- 2026 – Q2: Medium
- Capital One Miles
- Capital One has an overall “Low” probability
- Chase Ultimate Rewards
- 2025 – Q3: Low
- 2025 – Q4: High
- 2026 – Q1: Medium
- 2026 – Q2: High
- Citi ThankYou Rewards
- Citi has an overall “Low” probability
Avios Family (British Airways, Finnair, Iberia, Qatar Airways, Aer Lingus)
- American Express Membership Rewards
- 2025 – Q3: High
- 2025 – Q4: Low
- 2026 – Q1: Low
- 2026 – Q2: Low
- Capital One Miles
- 2025 – Q3: Low
- 2025 – Q4: Medium
- 2026 – Q1: Low
- 2026 – Q2: Low
- Chase Ultimate Rewards
- Chase has an overall “Low” probability
- Citi ThankYou Rewards
- 2025 – Q3: Low
- 2025 – Q4: High
- 2026 – Q1: Low
- 2026 – Q2: High
Cathay Pacific Asia Miles
- American Express Membership Rewards
- 2025 – Q3: Medium
- 2025 – Q4: Medium
- 2026 – Q1: Low
- 2026 – Q2: Low
- Capital One Miles
- Capital One has an overall “Low” probability
- Citi ThankYou Rewards
- Capital One has an overall “Low” probability
Air Canada Aeroplan
- American Express Membership Rewards
- American Express has an overall “Low” probability
- Capital One Miles
- Capital One has an overall “Zero” probability
- Chase Ultimate Rewards
- 2025 – Q3: Low
- 2025 – Q4: High
- 2026 – Q1: Low
- 2026 – Q2: Medium
These predictions provide a roadmap for maximizing transfer bonuses in the coming 12 months.
If you are planning to transfer points to one of these programs, timing your transfers around these likely promotions can help you get more value from your rewards.
Hotel Transfer Partner Predictions
Hotel transfer bonuses are less frequent than airline promotions, but they still present valuable opportunities to maximize rewards.
Based on historical trends, the hotel programs most likely to receive transfer bonuses in the next four quarters are Marriott Bonvoy, Hilton Honors, and IHG One Rewards.
These programs have consistently been the top recipients of transfer bonuses from credit card issuers.
Here is our forecast for each hotel program:
Marriott Bonvoy
- American Express Membership Rewards
- 2025 – Q3: Low
- 2025 – Q4: Medium
- 2026 – Q1: Medium
- 2026 – Q2: Low
- Chase Ultimate Rewards
- 2025 – Q3: High
- 2025 – Q4: Low
- 2026 – Q1: Low
- 2026 – Q2: Medium
Hilton Honors (Only transfers from American Express)
- American Express Membership Rewards
- 2025 – Q3: High
- 2025 – Q4: Low
- 2026 – Q1: Low
- 2026 – Q2: Medium
IHG One Rewards (Only transfers from Chase)
- Chase Ultimate Rewards
- 2025 – Q3: Medium
- 2025 – Q4: Low
- 2026 – Q1: Low
- 2026 – Q2: Low
If you are considering transferring points to a hotel program, timing your transfers around these potential bonuses can help you maximize value.
Marriott Bonvoy and Hilton Honors are the most likely to receive promotions, while IHG bonuses are less frequent but still worth monitoring.
The Best Credit Cards For Earning Transferable Points
Maximizing transfer bonuses starts with earning the right points.
Not all credit cards offer flexible rewards, so choosing a card that earns transferable points is key to unlocking the best redemption opportunities.
Programs like Chase Ultimate Rewards, American Express Membership Rewards, Capital One Miles, and Citi ThankYou Points allow cardholders to move their points to airline and hotel partners, often with added bonuses.
Personal Credit Cards
- Chase Sapphire Preferred® Card
- Chase Sapphire Reserve® Card
- Capital One Venture X Rewards Credit Card
- Capital One Venture Rewards Credit Card
- The Platinum Card® From American Express
- American Express® Gold Card
- American Express® Green Card
- Citi Prestige® Card (Not available for new applicants)
- Citi Strata Premier℠ Card
Business Credit Cards
- Ink Business Preferred® Credit Card
- Ink Business Unlimited® Credit Card
- Ink Business Cash® Credit Card
- Capital One Venture X Business
- The Business Platinum Card® from American Express
- American Express® Business Gold Card
- The Business Green Rewards Card From American Express
Final Thoughts
Credit Card transfer bonuses are one of the most powerful ways to increase the value of your points.
While these promotions are never guaranteed, historical data provides strong insights into when and where they are most likely to appear.
By understanding past trends, you can make more strategic decisions about when to transfer points and which loyalty programs offer the best opportunities.
Airlines such as Avianca LifeMiles, Air France-KLM Flying Blue, and Virgin Atlantic Flying Club have consistently been among the most frequent recipients of transfer bonuses.
On the hotel side, Marriott Bonvoy and Hilton Honors present the best chances for future promotions.
Additionally, American Express and Chase stand out as the most reliable banks for offering these bonuses across their transfer partners.
To get the most value from your points, it is important to track upcoming transfer bonuses and time your redemptions accordingly. If you do not need to transfer points immediately, waiting for a bonus can significantly increase the number of miles or hotel points you receive.
Choosing the right credit cards to earn transferable points also plays a key role in maximizing rewards, as programs like Chase Ultimate Rewards, American Express Membership Rewards, Capital One Miles, and Citi ThankYou Points frequently offer the most flexibility.
By staying informed and planning ahead, you can take full advantage of transfer bonuses to stretch your points further.
Whether you are saving for a premium flight or a luxury hotel stay, leveraging these promotions can make your travel rewards go even further.
And if you have any questions, you may enjoy the free community we are building, full of travel enthusiasts like yourself ready to answer your questions and share their own experiences.
